Australia is almost 95,000 homes behind the pace needed to meet the National Housing Accord target, according to new analysis by the Housing Industry Association (HIA). The industry body estimates the shortfall has cost the economy about $45 billion in forgone activity and left governments billions of dollars short in tax revenue.
The HIA based its analysis on Australian Bureau of Statistics dwelling data covering the first two full years of the Accord, which aims to deliver 1.2 million homes. HIA Managing Director Jocelyn Martin said the country is now 94,980 dwellings behind. Based on average household sizes, she said the missing homes could have housed about 242,160 people.
Martin said residential construction supports jobs and businesses across the economy. By HIA’s estimate, building the missing homes would have generated about $45 billion in economic activity.
Applying the shortfall to state and territory tax settings, the HIA estimates about $2.8 billion in stamp duty and $8.2 billion in GST was not collected over the two years. That is a combined shortfall of about $11 billion. It says this money could have paid for the equivalent of 43,455 essential workers nationwide over the same period.
“New housing is revenue positive to government,” Martin said. She argued that additional taxes, such as those in this year’s federal budget, will only reduce supply.
Building activity improved in the June 2026 quarter. Martin said this mostly reflects sales and approvals from 2025, so it does not yet show the effect of this year’s budget housing tax changes or interest rate rises. The HIA expects those effects to appear in 2027.
With further rate rises possible and international events adding uncertainty, Martin said governments need to reduce the cost of land and housing if Australia is to meet its long-term housing needs.
Australia’s Housing Shortfall Leaves $11 Billion Hole in Government Revenue added by Indian newspaper Sydney on
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